Market Issue

If the CAPE ratio is at 40 — nearly the highest in 145 years — is a crash coming? Sometimes it warns. Sometimes it cries wolf. And three of the worst crashes in history arrived with the CAPE looking perfectly ordinary. This briefing scores the ratio the way you would score any forecasting tool: every major market peak since the data begins, the CAPE reading at the time, and what actually happened next. No cherry-picking, no single crash as proof. All figures are as of November 12, 2026, unless noted otherwise. Where the CAPE stands right now The S&P 500's CAPE stood at 40.09 at the close on November 12, 2026 — the second-highest reading in the history of the series. The ratio divides the index's price by its average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past ten years. Its long-run mean is 17.45 and its median is 16.14, going back to 1871. The all-time high is 44.19, set in December 1999. The low is 4.78, from December 1920. It has read above 40 in every month since May 2026...

Can you buy the world's cheapest stock markets the same way you buy an index fund? Yes — two ETFs try exactly that. But the one with a live track record has returned 8.3% a year since it launched, against 13.3% for the S&P 500. The US market trades at nearly 40 times its ten-year average earnings. Turkey's trades at 6 times. That gap is the whole pitch for CAPE-based investing: use Robert Shiller's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio to find the cheap markets, then buy them. This briefing shows the October 2026 map, how the two ETFs that do this actually work, what the famous 14.7% backtest really says, and the three traps to know before using the ratio at all. All figures are as of November 9–11, 2026, unless noted otherwise. What the CAPE ratio actually measures The CAPE divides a market's price by its average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past ten years. That ten-year window is the point. A normal P/E uses one year of earnings, so it jump...

Did the stock market just get cheap again? No. The S&P 500's CAPE ratio slipped below 40 after the November selloff, but at about 39.9 it is still more than twice its long-run average — and the only other time it stayed above 39 was the dot-com peak. The ratio stood at 41.04 when markets closed on October 28. Then the index fell 4.36% on November 5, and by November 9 the CAPE had dropped to 39.85. That dip below 40 is the first daily reading under the mark since May — but it changes nothing about the message. It only shows how fast the gauge moves when prices do. So what did the S&P 500 actually return the last time its CAPE ratio was above 39? The answer splits in two: a strong final year for early buyers, and a lost decade for everyone. All figures are as of November 9–10, 2026, unless noted otherwise. What the CAPE ratio is — and where it stands now The CAPE divides the S&P 500's price by its average earnings over the past 10 years, adjusted for infla...

Wondering what actually moved the stock market in 2026? The short answer: earnings carried the year, politics moved prices for a day, and the two biggest single-day swings happened in the same week. With six weeks left in the year, the S&P 500 stands at 7,376.86, up 7.8% in 2026 after 28 record closes. That headline looks calm. The path to it was not: a 9.1% drawdown in March, a record high in October, and a week in November that delivered both the best day in three months and the worst day of the year. All figures in this briefing are as of November 6, 2026, unless noted otherwise. The year in numbers: one scoreboard Every theme below starts from the same scoreboard — here it is, on one date. Market Level (Nov 6) The number that matters S&P 500 7,376.86 +7.8% in 2026 Dow Jones 51,285.73 +6.7% in 2026 Nasdaq Composite 24,579.43 +5.8% in 2026 Brent crude $98.32 −13.3% in one week Gold (spot) ~$4,050 −28% from Jan record U.S. Dollar Index ...

Did oil just crash? Not quite — but it just had its worst week in years. Brent crude fell about 13% in a single week, from $113.43 to $98.32 a barrel, on bets that a U.S.-Iran deal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The drop is real, and so is the reason to be careful with it. No deal has been signed, tankers are still being attacked, and the oil actually loading onto ships today costs about $14 a barrel more than the futures price suggests. This briefing covers what moved, what didn't, and the three dates that decide what happens next. All figures are as of November 6–7, 2026. The week in numbers Both benchmarks gave back most of October's gains in five sessions — but neither is back to where the year started. Benchmark A week ago Latest Change Brent crude (January futures) $113.43 $98.32 −13.3% WTI crude (December futures) $104.12 $90.83 −12.7% U.S. regular gasoline (AAA) $4.18 $4.04 −14.7¢ U.S. diesel (AAA) $6.31 $6.21 −10.3¢ Brent an...

Did the dollar just collapse after the midterms? No — it dipped for a day, then bounced back. The U.S. Dollar Index is still up about 4% in 2026. On Wednesday, November 4, headlines said the dollar had tumbled to a one-month low after Democrats won both chambers of Congress. The index fell as much as 0.6% during the session and closed down 0.38%. Two days later it closed at 102.30 — higher than before the election. The one-day drop was real, but it was a repricing, not a trend change. Here is what moved the dollar, why two different dollar indexes tell two different stories, and what a 4% move actually does to your money. All figures are as of November 6, 2026. What happened on November 4 — and November 6 The dollar fell on election news, then erased the whole drop in two sessions. On Wednesday, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell as much as 0.6% to an intraday low near 101.2, its weakest reading in a month, before closing near 101.48, down 0.38% on the day. The euro gained 0.6%...

Everyone quotes the same midterm statistic — stocks rise in the year after the vote. But which part of the market actually does the rising? Technology — by a wide margin, in both the 100-year record and the modern ETF era. The average post-midterm year gave tech about +30%, while energy managed about +4%. That gap is the story. The index-level pattern is well known: the S&P 500 has risen in the 12 months after every midterm since 1942, averaging about +15%, according to Franklin Templeton's analysis of S&P Global data. What gets quoted far less is the spread inside the market — the average gap between the best and worst sector in the same window is roughly 40 percentage points. This post ranks the sectors on two independent datasets, explains why the leadership looks the way it does, and ends with what the numbers can and cannot tell you about the year ahead. All figures are as of early November 2026, days after the November 3 vote. The modern scoreboard: nine midterms, ...