Market Issue

How much did the stock market actually lose in the Great Depression? The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 89% — $1,000 of Dow stocks became about $108, and it took 25 years for prices to climb back. But the headline number hides the real story: the crash took nearly three years, the rallies in between trapped buyers who thought the worst was over, and counting dividends changes the recovery from 25 years to about 15. This is the third post in our depression series. The overview laid out the five warning signs and the three reasons it might not happen; this post is the history — what the market actually did from 1929 to 1932, in numbers. All figures are current as of November 13, 2026, unless noted otherwise. The Short Answer: 89% — and What That Number Leaves Out From its peak on September 3, 1929, to its bottom on July 8, 1932, the Dow fell from 381.17 to 41.22 — a loss of 89%. That is a price-only number: it counts share prices and ignores dividends. A saver who held $1,000 of...

If the CAPE ratio is at 40 — nearly the highest in 145 years — is a crash coming? Sometimes it warns. Sometimes it cries wolf. And three of the worst crashes in history arrived with the CAPE looking perfectly ordinary. This briefing scores the ratio the way you would score any forecasting tool: every major market peak since the data begins, the CAPE reading at the time, and what actually happened next. No cherry-picking, no single crash as proof. All figures are as of November 12, 2026, unless noted otherwise. Where the CAPE stands right now The S&P 500's CAPE stood at 40.09 at the close on November 12, 2026 — the second-highest reading in the history of the series. The ratio divides the index's price by its average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past ten years. Its long-run mean is 17.45 and its median is 16.14, going back to 1871. The all-time high is 44.19, set in December 1999. The low is 4.78, from December 1920. It has read above 40 in every month since May 2026...

Can you buy the world's cheapest stock markets the same way you buy an index fund? Yes — two ETFs try exactly that. But the one with a live track record has returned 8.3% a year since it launched, against 13.3% for the S&P 500. The US market trades at nearly 40 times its ten-year average earnings. Turkey's trades at 6 times. That gap is the whole pitch for CAPE-based investing: use Robert Shiller's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio to find the cheap markets, then buy them. This briefing shows the October 2026 map, how the two ETFs that do this actually work, what the famous 14.7% backtest really says, and the three traps to know before using the ratio at all. All figures are as of November 9–11, 2026, unless noted otherwise. What the CAPE ratio actually measures The CAPE divides a market's price by its average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past ten years. That ten-year window is the point. A normal P/E uses one year of earnings, so it jump...

Did the stock market just get cheap again? No. The S&P 500's CAPE ratio slipped below 40 after the November selloff, but at about 39.9 it is still more than twice its long-run average — and the only other time it stayed above 39 was the dot-com peak. The ratio stood at 41.04 when markets closed on October 28. Then the index fell 4.36% on November 5, and by November 9 the CAPE had dropped to 39.85. That dip below 40 is the first daily reading under the mark since May — but it changes nothing about the message. It only shows how fast the gauge moves when prices do. So what did the S&P 500 actually return the last time its CAPE ratio was above 39? The answer splits in two: a strong final year for early buyers, and a lost decade for everyone. All figures are as of November 9–10, 2026, unless noted otherwise. What the CAPE ratio is — and where it stands now The CAPE divides the S&P 500's price by its average earnings over the past 10 years, adjusted for infla...

Wondering what actually moved the stock market in 2026? The short answer: earnings carried the year, politics moved prices for a day, and the two biggest single-day swings happened in the same week. With six weeks left in the year, the S&P 500 stands at 7,376.86, up 7.8% in 2026 after 28 record closes. That headline looks calm. The path to it was not: a 9.1% drawdown in March, a record high in October, and a week in November that delivered both the best day in three months and the worst day of the year. All figures in this briefing are as of November 6, 2026, unless noted otherwise. The year in numbers: one scoreboard Every theme below starts from the same scoreboard — here it is, on one date. Market Level (Nov 6) The number that matters S&P 500 7,376.86 +7.8% in 2026 Dow Jones 51,285.73 +6.7% in 2026 Nasdaq Composite 24,579.43 +5.8% in 2026 Brent crude $98.32 −13.3% in one week Gold (spot) ~$4,050 −28% from Jan record U.S. Dollar Index ...

Did oil just crash? Not quite — but it just had its worst week in years. Brent crude fell about 13% in a single week, from $113.43 to $98.32 a barrel, on bets that a U.S.-Iran deal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The drop is real, and so is the reason to be careful with it. No deal has been signed, tankers are still being attacked, and the oil actually loading onto ships today costs about $14 a barrel more than the futures price suggests. This briefing covers what moved, what didn't, and the three dates that decide what happens next. All figures are as of November 6–7, 2026. The week in numbers Both benchmarks gave back most of October's gains in five sessions — but neither is back to where the year started. Benchmark A week ago Latest Change Brent crude (January futures) $113.43 $98.32 −13.3% WTI crude (December futures) $104.12 $90.83 −12.7% U.S. regular gasoline (AAA) $4.18 $4.04 −14.7¢ U.S. diesel (AAA) $6.31 $6.21 −10.3¢ Brent an...