Market Issue

  The short answer: midterms make noise, not lasting damage Election week is here — Americans vote on Tuesday, November 3 — and market commentary is full of predictions about what the results mean for stocks. Here is what the historical record says instead: in every midterm election year going back to 1950, the S&P 500 has finished the following 12 months higher , with an average gain of about 15%, according to J.P. Morgan Asset Management data. That does not predict this year — it is a 19-observation sample, not a law of nature. But it is a useful anchor while headlines compete for your attention. This briefing covers what typically happens to markets during midterm weeks, what history shows after the vote, and what actually drives returns instead of elections. Try the Compound Growth Calculator → The midterm-week volatility pattern Midterm weeks tend to be choppier than average. That is not a forecast — it is the recurring pattern: uncertainty peaks just before votes are...

  The short version This was the week the market stopped grading AI investments on promises and started grading them on cash. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday, October 28, keeping the federal funds target at 3.75% to 4% in a 10-2 vote — with two officials dissenting in favor of another hike. Then big tech earnings turned the spotlight on how much cash the AI buildout is burning: Intel plunged 28.6% on Friday for its worst day since 1974, and the S&P 500 fell 1.8% for its worst session since June, closing out a third straight losing week at 7,580.07. The context most headlines skip: the market is still only about 3.1% below its all-time high, and on that ugly Friday nearly as many stocks rose as fell. This was a tech selloff, not a broad one. Here is what actually moved, and why it mattered. The Fed’s hawkish hold: what the 10-2 vote signals On October 28, the Federal Open Market Committee kept its benchmark rate range at 3.75% to 4%, o...