Election Week Market Briefing: What Past Midterms Say About Stocks After the Vote
The short answer: midterms make noise, not lasting damage Election week is here — Americans vote on Tuesday, November 3 — and market commentary is full of predictions about what the results mean for stocks. Here is what the historical record says instead: in every midterm election year going back to 1950, the S&P 500 has finished the following 12 months higher , with an average gain of about 15%, according to J.P. Morgan Asset Management data. That does not predict this year — it is a 19-observation sample, not a law of nature. But it is a useful anchor while headlines compete for your attention. This briefing covers what typically happens to markets during midterm weeks, what history shows after the vote, and what actually drives returns instead of elections. Try the Compound Growth Calculator → The midterm-week volatility pattern Midterm weeks tend to be choppier than average. That is not a forecast — it is the recurring pattern: uncertainty peaks just before votes are...