Market Issue

Can you buy the world's cheapest stock markets the same way you buy an index fund? Yes — two ETFs try exactly that. But the one with a live track record has returned 8.3% a year since it launched, against 13.3% for the S&P 500. The US market trades at nearly 40 times its ten-year average earnings. Turkey's trades at 6 times. That gap is the whole pitch for CAPE-based investing: use Robert Shiller's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio to find the cheap markets, then buy them. This briefing shows the October 2026 map, how the two ETFs that do this actually work, what the famous 14.7% backtest really says, and the three traps to know before using the ratio at all. All figures are as of November 9–11, 2026, unless noted otherwise. What the CAPE ratio actually measures The CAPE divides a market's price by its average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past ten years. That ten-year window is the point. A normal P/E uses one year of earnings, so it jump...

Did the stock market just get cheap again? No. The S&P 500's CAPE ratio slipped below 40 after the November selloff, but at about 39.9 it is still more than twice its long-run average — and the only other time it stayed above 39 was the dot-com peak. The ratio stood at 41.04 when markets closed on October 28. Then the index fell 4.36% on November 5, and by November 9 the CAPE had dropped to 39.85. That dip below 40 is the first daily reading under the mark since May — but it changes nothing about the message. It only shows how fast the gauge moves when prices do. So what did the S&P 500 actually return the last time its CAPE ratio was above 39? The answer splits in two: a strong final year for early buyers, and a lost decade for everyone. All figures are as of November 9–10, 2026, unless noted otherwise. What the CAPE ratio is — and where it stands now The CAPE divides the S&P 500's price by its average earnings over the past 10 years, adjusted for infla...