How Mexico's Silent Strategy Outshined Trudeau's Approach in Handling Trump's Trade Threats

Trudeau’s immediate visit to Mar-a-Lago and public retaliation contrasted with Mexico's quiet diplomacy.

The trade relations between the United States, Mexico, and Canada took a dramatic turn on February 3, 2025, when U.S. President Donald Trump postponed imposing a 25% tariff on imports from both neighboring countries. The tariffs, initially set to go into effect on February 4, were a response to ongoing issues surrounding illegal immigration and the cross-border trafficking of fentanyl.

Both the Canadian and Mexican governments employed extensive diplomatic efforts to negotiate a delay and eventual withdrawal of the tariffs. However, the strategies adopted by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum couldn’t have been more different—and the outcomes spoke volumes.

Trudeau’s Aggressive Public Stance Backfires

When Trump first hinted at imposing the 25% tariffs in November 2024, Trudeau wasted no time. He flew to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida for immediate negotiations. Yet, despite multiple rounds of talks, Canada failed to secure any concessions.

By February 1, frustrated by the lack of progress, Trudeau delivered a fiery speech, promising retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods worth CAD 155 billion, including American orange juice, whiskey, and household appliances—strategically targeting industries in Republican strongholds. His administration even outlined an initial list of goods to be hit with a 25% duty.

Despite his aggressive approach, Trudeau had to make significant compromises. By February 3, after a tense series of phone calls, Canada agreed to appoint a chief official responsible for halting fentanyl trafficking and to intensify efforts against drug-related criminal networks.

Sheinbaum's Strategic Silence and Diplomatic Mastery

In stark contrast, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico's first Jewish and female leader, opted for a quieter, more calculated strategy. Despite mounting pressure, Sheinbaum refrained from revealing any countermeasures or retaliation plans to the public. Her objective was simple: avoid provocation while securing a delay in tariff implementation.

Sheinbaum's government had been preparing for Trump's re-election since June 2024, long before her October inauguration. Upon Trump's victory, Sheinbaum emphasized maintaining open communication and respectful relations with the U.S., setting up direct communication channels with key American officials.

Unlike Canada, Mexico did not publicly announce extensive border security investments. Instead, Sheinbaum's administration provided comprehensive data to the White House, demonstrating a significant decrease in illegal immigration and record fentanyl seizures in December 2024. This allowed Trump to tout the improved border security as a personal victory to his supporters.

A Quiet Yet Impactful Strategy

During the February 3 phone call with Trump, Sheinbaum agreed to deploy an additional 10,000 National Guard troops to Mexico's northern border and continue crackdowns on drug trafficking. This was largely an extension of existing efforts, not a significant concession. Trump eagerly promoted this as a triumph on social media, claiming it was a measure specifically aimed at combating fentanyl trafficking and illegal immigration.

U.S. diplomat John Feeley observed, “They let Trump take credit without actually making major concessions.”

Unlike Colombia’s president, who had publicly resisted U.S. deportation measures only to capitulate later, Sheinbaum maintained a composed and respectful demeanor throughout negotiations. Her calm handling of Trump earned praise from international leaders, including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who called her "an astute and composed politician."

Resisting Attacks on Mexican Sovereignty

Despite her diplomatic restraint, Sheinbaum did not shy away from defending Mexico’s sovereignty. When Trump suggested renaming the Gulf of Mexico as the "American Gulf" in January, Sheinbaum responded by citing historical documents predating Mexico's constitution that referred to the region as "Mexican America." She further highlighted the 1607 origin of the current name, subtly reinforcing Mexico's rightful claims.

She also strongly refuted Trump’s accusation that the Mexican government was in collusion with drug cartels, pointing out the role of U.S. arms manufacturers in supplying weapons to these criminal organizations.

A Diplomatic Win—For Now

Sheinbaum’s diplomatic finesse paid off, securing a one-month postponement of the tariffs without major concessions. Her approval rating, already high at 78%, soared following this perceived victory. However, analysts warn that this success may be short-lived. The sustainability of Mexico’s economic stability will largely depend on its ability to swiftly deliver tangible results in drug trafficking and illegal immigration enforcement.

Political commentator Jorge Guajardo noted, “Sheinbaum masterfully managed a crisis. Global leaders will see her as a model for crisis diplomacy, unlike Colombia’s president, who serves as a cautionary tale.”

Though tensions with the U.S. are far from resolved, Sheinbaum's approach offers valuable insights into effective, calculated diplomacy in the face of unpredictable challenges.